Category: Models (Page 1 of 2)


Warriors preseason game against the Lakers, first game back at Chase as NBA champions.

Let’s get this out of the way first, I’ll probably get a bunch of these wrong but the model that’s been deployed has spoken and we’re going to roll with it for better or worse. If anything it will be fun to figure out what went wrong and how physical reality played out in the end. I’ve picked the Milwaukee Bucks as the team with the most wins and defeating the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals. The general thesis out there is that there will be an unprecedented level of tanking due to the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes which is valid, however I’m taking a much different angle because I think we’ll actually see a smoothing in the lower tier. We’ll see that it’s actually hard for more than 6-7 teams to all out-tank each other due to diminishing returns and ultimately there will be wins to be had at the bottom. My projection for the Mavericks is probably too low but I think this team is heavily overvalued and flat out bad, just ask the question who their second best player is behind Luka and then take a look at the cast supporting him. I think that Boston actually played a bit out of their shoes last year and are going to see a heavy regression. Two teams that I believe will take a big step forward this year will be the New Orleans Pelicans and New York Knicks, and we’ll see good playoff bound teams like the Phoenix Suns and LA Clippers start sliding while underperforming expectations.


  1. Milwaukee Bucks (Over 52.5 wins)
  2. Brooklyn Nets (Under 50.5 wins)
  3. Philadelphia 76ers (Under 50.5 wins)
  4. Golden State Warriors (Under 51.5 wins)
  5. New Orleans Pelicans (Over 44.5 wins)
  6. Denver Nuggets (Under 49.5 wins)
  7. New York Knicks (Over 38.5 wins)
  8. Memphis Grizzlies (Under 48.5 wins)
  9. Los Angeles Clippers (Under 52.5 wins)
  10. Phoenix Suns (Under 52.5 wins)
  11. Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 47.5 wins)
  12. Los Angeles Lakers (Under 45.5 wins)
  13. Miami Heat (Under 48.5 wins)
  14. Boston Celtics (Under 53.5 wins)
  15. Portland Trailblazers (Over 39.5 wins)
  16. Atlanta Hawks (Under 45.5 wins)
  17. Toronto Raptors (Under 45.5 wins)
  18. Minnesota T-Wolves (Under 48.5 wins)
  19. Washington Wizards (Over 35.5 wins)
  20. Utah Jazz (Over 24.5 wins)
  21. Charlotte Hornets (Over 35.5 wins)
  22. Chicago Bulls (Under 41.5 wins)
  23. Orlando Magic (Over 26.5 wins)
  24. Indiana Pacers (Over 23.5 wins)
  25. San Antonio Spurs (Over 22.5 wins)
  26. Oklahoma City Thunder (Over 23.5 wins)
  27. Sacramento Kings (Under 33.5 wins)
  28. Detroit Pistons (Under 29.5 wins)
  29. Dallas Mavericks (Under 48.5 wins)
  30. Houston Rockets (Under 23.5 wins)


Play-in West: Minnesota over Utah
Play-in East: Toronto over Washington

7th Seed West: Lakers over Portland
7th Seed East: Boston over Atlanta

8th Seed West: Minnesota over Portland
8th Seed East: Atlanta over Toronto

First Round West 1-8: Golden State over Minnesota
First Round East 1-8: Milwaukee over Atlanta

First Round West 2-7: New Orleans over Lakers
First Round East 2-7: Brooklyn over Boston

First Round West 3-6: Denver over Phoenix
First Round East 3-6: Philadelphia over Miami

First Round West 4-5: Clippers over Memphis
First Round East 4-5: Cleveland over New York

West Semifinals 1: Golden State over Clippers
West Semifinals 2: Denver over New Orleans

East Semifinals 1: Milwaukee over Cleveland
East Semifinals 2: Brooklyn over Philadelphia

Western Conference Finals: Golden State over Denver
Eastern Conference Finals: Milwaukee over Brooklyn

NBA Finals: Milwaukee over Golden State


Houston Rockets


Paolo Banchero


Giannis Antetokounmpo


Andrew Wiggins

NBA Projections • Sat 07/17/21

Resulting Model Score: 93.1%

409301PHOMILCDeandre Ayton80001.039.62
1115625PHOMILSF/PFCameron Johnson4000-0.818.53
16852MILPHOPF/CGiannis Antetokounmpo12600-2.859.82
1005MILPHOPGJeff Teague1800-3.36.66
37861PHOMILSG/SFTorrey Craig2400-4.010.51
1087PHOMILPGChris Paul8800-4.542.30
1073MILPHOPG/SGJrue Holiday9600-4.541.75
35179PHOMILSF/PFAbdel Nader1200-5.30.75
18939MILPHOSG/SFPat Connaughton4800-5.517.89
18920PHOMILCFrank Kaminsky1400-5.51.35
13947MILPHOSF/PFP.J. Tucker3600-6.311.98
36052MILPHOPG/SGBryn Forbes1600-6.51.54
13990MILPHOSG/SFKhris Middleton10400-7.344.37
18941PHOMILPGCameron Payne4400-9.014.79
1498MILPHOCBrook Lopez6000-10.518.12
13942PHOMILSF/PFJae Crowder7400-11.026.68
18909MILPHOPF/CBobby Portis5600-12.317.27
18949PHOMILSGDevin Booker10200-12.543.13
408842PHOMILSFMikal Bridges6800-15.320.70

NBA Projections • Wed 07/14/21

Resulting Model Score: 89.7%

409301PHOMILCDeandre Ayton84000.542.50
1115625PHOMILSF/PFCameron Johnson3800-1.317.75
16852MILPHOPF/CGiannis Antetokounmpo12200-2.558.50
37861PHOMILSG/SFTorrey Craig1800-3.06.00
13947MILPHOSF/PFP.J. Tucker3400-3.014.00
1087PHOMILPGChris Paul9600-3.344.75
1073MILPHOPG/SGJrue Holiday9200-3.842.25
1005MILPHOPGJeff Teague2200-4.07.00
18939MILPHOSG/SFPat Connaughton4200-4.316.75
13990MILPHOSG/SFKhris Middleton10000-5.344.75
35179PHOMILSF/PFAbdel Nader1200-5.30.75
18920PHOMILCFrank Kaminsky2000-5.54.50
1498MILPHOCBrook Lopez6200-8.023.00
18941PHOMILPGCameron Payne4600-9.313.75
36052MILPHOPG/SGBryn Forbes2400-9.32.75
13942PHOMILSF/PFJae Crowder6800-11.522.50
18909MILPHOPF/CBobby Portis5400-13.513.50
18949PHOMILSGDevin Booker10400-15.836.25
408842PHOMILSFMikal Bridges7600-15.822.25

NBA Projections • Sun 07/11/21

Resulting Model Score: 83.7%

37861PHOMILSG/SFTorrey Craig10001.56.50
1005MILPHOPGJeff Teague1800-1.37.75
18939MILPHOSG/SFPat Connaughton3800-1.517.50
409301PHOMILCDeandre Ayton9000-2.043.00
13990MILPHOSG/SFKhris Middleton9600-2.545.50
1087PHOMILPGChris Paul9800-2.546.50
1073MILPHOPG/SGJrue Holiday8800-3.540.50
35179PHOMILSF/PFAbdel Nader1000-3.81.25
18920PHOMILCFrank Kaminsky1600-4.33.75
16852MILPHOPF/CGiannis Antetokounmpo11800-5.553.50
1115625PHOMILSF/PFCameron Johnson4600-6.516.50
13947MILPHOSF/PFP.J. Tucker4200-6.514.50
1498MILPHOCBrook Lopez6600-7.825.25
36052MILPHOPG/SGBryn Forbes2600-8.84.25
13942PHOMILSF/PFJae Crowder6000-9.820.25
18941PHOMILPGCameron Payne4800-10.014.00
408842PHOMILSFMikal Bridges7200-13.522.50
18949PHOMILSGDevin Booker10600-15.837.25
18909MILPHOPF/CBobby Portis5200-17.38.75

NBA Projections • Thu 07/08/21

Resulting Model Score: 87.1%

1073MILPHOPG/SGJrue Holiday88005.049.00
13990MILPHOSG/SFKhris Middleton98001.050.00
1005MILPHOPGJeff Teague14000.87.75
18909MILPHOPF/CBobby Portis32000.516.50
18920PHOMILCFrank Kaminsky10000.55.50
18941PHOMILPGCameron Payne38000.019.00
37861PHOMILSG/SFTorrey Craig2400-1.810.25
36052MILPHOPG/SGBryn Forbes1800-2.07.00
409301PHOMILCDeandre Ayton9200-2.543.50
1087PHOMILPGChris Paul10400-3.049.00
16852MILPHOPF/CGiannis Antetokounmpo11400-3.553.50
18939MILPHOSG/SFPat Connaughton4000-4.315.75
13947MILPHOSF/PFP.J. Tucker4600-7.315.75
13942PHOMILSF/PFJae Crowder5600-8.819.25
18949PHOMILSGDevin Booker10000-9.041.00
1115625PHOMILSF/PFCameron Johnson6000-11.818.25
1498MILPHOCBrook Lopez7600-13.025.00
408842PHOMILSFMikal Bridges6800-14.519.50

NBA Projections • Tue 07/06/21

Resulting Model Score: 95.0%

1115625PHOMILSF/PFCameron Johnson28003.517.50
36004PHOMILPF/CDario Saric20000.010.00
1087PHOMILPGChris Paul9800-2.346.75
31759MILPHOPFThanasis Antetokounmpo1000-3.02.00
409301PHOMILCDeandre Ayton8400-3.538.50
1073MILPHOPG/SGJrue Holiday9200-3.542.50
16852MILPHOPF/CGiannis Antetokounmpo11200-3.852.25
35179PHOMILSF/PFAbdel Nader1200-5.01.00
1005MILPHOPGJeff Teague1600-5.03.00
36052MILPHOPG/SGBryn Forbes2400-6.06.00
13990MILPHOSG/SFKhris Middleton10400-6.345.75
13942PHOMILSF/PFJae Crowder5600-6.821.25
18941PHOMILPGCameron Payne4600-6.816.25
13947MILPHOSF/PFP.J. Tucker4400-6.815.25
18949PHOMILSGDevin Booker9600-7.840.25
408842PHOMILSFMikal Bridges6000-9.520.50
1498MILPHOCBrook Lopez7400-10.826.25
18939MILPHOSG/SFPat Connaughton4800-12.311.75
18909MILPHOPF/CBobby Portis6800-12.521.50
37861PHOMILSG/SFTorrey Craig3800-12.86.25

NBA Projections • Sat 07/03/21

Resulting Model Score: 76.5%

18909MILATLPF/CBobby Portis620011.342.25
13990MILATLSG/SFKhris Middleton104003.055.00
18939MILATLSG/SFPat Connaughton26002.515.50
36052MILATLPG/SGBryn Forbes16000.58.50
1329ATLMILPFDanilo Gallinari3800-0.318.75
31759MILATLPFThanasis Antetokounmpo1000-1.04.00
2439277ATLMILCOnyeka Okongwu2000-1.88.25
1073MILATLPG/SGJrue Holiday9600-2.345.75
1005MILATLPGJeff Teague1000-2.32.75
1498MILATLCBrook Lopez7200-4.831.25
35215ATLMILPG/SFKris Dunn1200-5.50.50
18610ATLMILCClint Capela6600-5.827.25
13947MILATLSF/PFP.J. Tucker4400-6.016.00
1115295ATLMILSG/SFCam Reddish3400-6.810.25
408969ATLMILSG/SFKevin Huerter7800-7.531.50
1044ATLMILPG/SGLou Williams5200-9.516.50
409063ATLMILPGTrae Young10200-9.841.25
37823ATLMILPF/CJohn Collins8200-13.827.25
37899ATLMILPG/SGBogdan Bogdanovic8800-14.829.25

NBA Projections • Thu 07/01/21

Resulting Model Score: 85.1%

31759MILATLPFThanasis Antetokounmpo10006.311.25
18909MILATLPF/CBobby Portis44004.326.25
1044ATLMILPG/SGLou Williams52002.828.75
18939MILATLSG/SFPat Connaughton36002.320.25
16863ATLMILSF/PFSolomon Hill10000.05.00
36052MILATLPG/SGBryn Forbes2600-0.512.50
1005MILATLPGJeff Teague1000-0.84.25
18610ATLMILCClint Capela6800-2.032.00
2439277ATLMILCOnyeka Okongwu1800-2.56.50
1329ATLMILPFDanilo Gallinari4800-4.020.00
13990MILATLSG/SFKhris Middleton10400-4.347.75
35215ATLMILPG/SFKris Dunn1400-4.52.50
13947MILATLSF/PFP.J. Tucker4000-4.815.25
1498MILATLCBrook Lopez6000-7.522.50
37899ATLMILPG/SGBogdan Bogdanovic7200-8.827.25
1073MILATLPG/SGJrue Holiday9600-9.039.00
1115295ATLMILSG/SFCam Reddish3200-9.36.75
408969ATLMILSG/SFKevin Huerter8400-11.031.00
37823ATLMILPF/CJohn Collins8000-12.327.75

NBA Projections • Wed 06/30/21

Resulting Model Score: 75.5%

13316LACPHOSF/PFMarcus Morris Sr.42007.028.00
14108LACPHOPGPatrick Beverley44002.524.50
1245LACPHOSGPaul George103002.053.50
409301PHOLACCDeandre Ayton7400-0.536.50
35179PHOLACSF/PFAbdel Nader3000-3.012.00
13942PHOLACSF/PFJae Crowder4900-3.820.75
1087PHOLACPGChris Paul8000-4.036.00
13352LACPHOPG/SGReggie Jackson7000-4.330.75
1315LACPHOSF/PFNicolas Batum4000-4.315.75
1490LACPHOCDeMarcus Cousins4600-5.018.00
18941PHOLACPGCameron Payne4300-5.516.00
37861PHOLACSG/SFTorrey Craig3000-6.38.75
36004PHOLACPF/CDario Saric3500-6.311.25
18949PHOLACSGDevin Booker8600-6.536.50
1115590LACPHOSGTerance Mann4800-7.316.75
408842PHOLACSFMikal Bridges5500-7.520.00
37814LACPHOSG/SFLuke Kennard3400-8.88.25

NBA Projections • Tue 06/29/21

Resulting Model Score: 69.4%

1044ATLMILPG/SGLou Williams35005.523.00
408969ATLMILSG/SFKevin Huerter58004.833.75
16852MILATLPF/CGiannis Antetokounmpo111003.058.50
37899ATLMILPG/SGBogdan Bogdanovic50002.027.00
18909MILATLPF/CBobby Portis44001.023.00
18939MILATLSG/SFPat Connaughton37000.318.75
13990MILATLSG/SFKhris Middleton9500-0.846.75
1329ATLMILPFDanilo Gallinari4600-2.820.25
18610ATLMILCClint Capela6300-3.028.50
13947MILATLSF/PFP.J. Tucker3800-4.015.00
1498MILATLCBrook Lopez4900-4.819.75
37823ATLMILPF/CJohn Collins6700-5.028.50
1115295ATLMILSG/SFCam Reddish3600-5.812.25
1073MILATLPG/SGJrue Holiday8500-6.336.25
36052MILATLPG/SGBryn Forbes3200-9.86.25
2439277ATLMILCOnyeka Okongwu3000-9.85.25
16863ATLMILSF/PFSolomon Hill3000-11.33.75
31759MILATLPFThanasis Antetokounmpo3000-13.51.50
1005MILATLPGJeff Teague3000-14.01.00
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